Steel industry status quo, needless to say, such as show, in the first five months of 2013, national key mills crude steel output of 320 million tons, up 8% from a year earlier, but only 0.19% return on sales, loss of 43% of the steel plant, iron and steel enterprise's investment rate of return is below the current deposit interest rates.At the same time, a large number of steel trade, go out of business, warehouse vacancy, the clouds above.
To solve the problems of industry, after the collapse of the original credit system, and for practitioners, first of all thinking about how much money will not again make, how much cost, but will not be doing business with who cheat.
(1) all kinds of traders have given various enquiries, warehouse are all proved difficult to make people trust, on the basis of this, if is steel mills directly put the goods in a warehouse, relatively higher credibility.
(2) for steel mills, traders warehouse financing provides the traditional advantage reservoir already not, become manufacturing-according-to-sale, big steel mills is good, but the small and medium-sized steel mills is an urgent need to open sales channels.
At Shanghai's steel mills spot platform, is to provide a third party access, steel mills have the goods on the steel platform, traders after placing orders, steel specified steel mills delivery to the designated warehouse, also the supervision of the warehouse daily erosion &deposition behavior state.In this process, the steel union associate originally mistrust several parties, through their own professional ability, selected really need trading traders, credible warehouse, logistics, and need to open the channels of small and medium-sized steel mill access, guarantee the safety of the process transactions.
Steel where things are not exclusive sex, in the sectors of the whole trade chain steel plant, storage, and even larger trade are likely to be engaged in a similar business.But we need to emphasize that the participants in the industry does not have the third party impartial status, the starting point of its business is the first and their own ability to link related to the maximum, at the appointed time will face bigger bottlenecks.
Steel unite do so quickly, there will be no market think food commodities online trading than clothes, single transaction value and great majority will cooperate with the financing process, steel unite smaller scale and awareness of risk control must not allow the business expansion beyond their own management capacity.But fortunately associated steel iron and steel industry in information services provided to third parties without the slightest competitors, all this is in the media, the Internet and even A shares are rare in the industry, so we think that the exploration of its business is just A matter of time, will in the process of matching gradually, and the ability to grow.
Steel group's current market valuation has reached 2 billion, look from the PE has been high, but the original information from the company's business and the industry layout, extremely stable position, the value of the company is still undervalued, another in different industries to provide site service in the industry, the information of the market value is 4 billion.We think that as more and more investors begin to pay close attention to and understand the steel after, can further realize the value of the company, a positive view on the future of the company value space.
The profit forecast and investment advice
Expect the company from 2013 to 2014 EPS were 0.33 yuan and 0.47 yuan.In 2013 from the accounting point of view, we think the data terminal business development of the new company, and gradually into the track of steel trade finance business, can resist performance drag on the advertising downturn.Recovery will take time, but the performance of the company in the near future valuations are still high because of the influence of the boom of cycle in the.We suggest that long-term investors focus on company performance in a downturn, when valuations are poor recognition of platform value;And lay particular stress on short-term investors can focus on steel changes of its parent company's cash flow statement, to judge the company's business in advance the possibility of a turning point.Maintain "buy" rating, according to 50 times in 2013 and 2013, 40 times PE, target price range 16.5 18.8 yuan.
Main risks: the boom of steel trade industry continues to weaken the negative effect on the advertising is more than expected;Data terminal, steel trade financing services development progress;Company move new office address after extra cost pressure.