The bell at the end of the year is about to ring, and there are few days for the market to operate. Before the year, the trend of the steel market was either down or up or stable, and everyone had their own views. Years ago was a relatively volatile period. The operations of steel mills and steel traders will closely follow the changes of the market.
The year 2013 is coming to an end, and the market that should have been busy in winter storage in previous years has not reappeared this year. Under the double attack of depressed demand and tight funds, the increase of steel inventory is suspected to restart. In the face of the trend of the steel market before the year, the weak ones account for the majority.
Over the years, near the end of the year, there has been a period of capital tension, and the interbank capital tension will continue in the short term. The seasonal pressure on domestic capital at the end of the year superimposed on the potential impact of Document No. 9. It is difficult to change the pattern of continuous tight capital before the Spring Festival. Last week, the weighted interest rate of inter-bank 7-day repo jumped to 8.21%, and the 1-month SHIBOR interest rate also rose significantly to 7.53%, indicating that the pressure on capital is still tight across the year.
In terms of inventory: the increase in inventory turned again, which made it difficult for steel prices to rise. Last week, the stock of construction steel in Shanghai increased, including a substantial increase in the stock of Grade III deformed steel bars, and the arrival of resources in the north and the surrounding small steel mills increased gradually. After the end of the National Day holiday, the national steel stocks fell ten times in a row, and the stocks were officially transferred to the warehouse increase channel. The weather was getting colder and colder, and rain, snow, and fog continued everywhere. Under this weather, the progress of outdoor construction projects must be affected. Therefore, it was expected that the social stocks would end the decline and turn to rise.
In terms of steel plants: according to the factory price policy of building materials in late December announced by Shagang on the 21st, the screw thread was reduced by 50, the wire rod and spiral bolt were reduced by 30, and the current three-tier spiral bolt 3720, the HPB300 general line 3660, spiral bolt 3710, cash tax included, the acceptance discount interest was adjusted to 24, and other policies remained unchanged. The off-season effect of the steel market is obvious, and the demand is poor. Therefore, the steel mills have to adjust the ex factory price strategy, mainly to reduce the price, to stimulate merchants to order. However, the decline of the steel mill price also makes the market lose confidence in the future market.
However, recently, the market price has weakened, the profit space of traders has narrowed, and the market upside down is as much as 100 yuan. The merchants are not willing to continue to reduce the price. Some merchants still have expectations for the market in the next year. In addition, the overall inventory of merchants is low, and the demand for replenishment still exists. The market is expected to see waves of rising prices.
In the special period at the end of the month and the end of the year, the financial pressure is great, the merchants are willing to ship, and the off-season effect is significant. Cold weather, outdoor construction is reduced, and the demand is difficult to improve, which has a certain role in suppressing the market, and the possibility of price pressure falling is large. However, with the easing of financial pressure and the preference for the steel market in the next year, the "winter storage" market has appeared in a small range, forming a certain support for the market price, In addition, if the steel mills subsidize the traders as scheduled, the market will also show the sentiment of price support, and it is possible for the steel market to see a small rise before the end of the year.
In the short term, the trend of steel price is still relatively weak, and the fundamentals are hardly favorable. Steel prices fluctuated and fell for several consecutive days, which was bad for the market mentality. In addition, in the off-season of steel use, the low temperature weather restricts outdoor construction, and the production rhythm of some downstream manufacturers will also be adjusted, so the continuous rebound of steel prices is obviously lacking, and the fundamentals of the steel market have not been substantially improved. In the absence of positive market background, the trend of steel price in the later period is still unclear.